OBJECTIVES: The global prevalence of obesity is rising rapidly, highlighting the importance of understanding risk factors related to the condition. Childhood obesity, which has itself become increasingly prevalent in recent years, is an important predictor of adulthood obesity. Studies suggest that the protein content of milk consumed in infanthood is an important predictor of weight gain in childhood. For instance, there is evidence that a lower-protein formula for non-exclusively breast-fed infants of overweight or obese mothers (SHAPE) can offer such advantages over standard infant formulas. The current study used predictive health economic modelling to determine the long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with the SHAPE formula compared with a standard formula when used in Mexico.
METHODS: A discrete event simulation was constructed to extrapolate the outcomes of trials on the use of formula in infanthood to changes in lifetime body mass index (BMI), the health outcomes due to the changes in BMI, and the healthcare system costs, productivity and quality of life impact associated with these outcomes.
RESULTS: The model predicts that individuals who receive SHAPE in infancy go on to have lower BMI levels throughout their lives, are less likely to be obese or develop obesity-related disease, live longer, incur fewer health system costs and have improved productivity.
CONCLUSIONS: Simulation-based economic modelling suggests that the benefits seen in the short term, with the use of SHAPE over standard formula, could translate into considerable health and economic benefits in the long term. Modelling over such long timeframes is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Further research should be undertaken to improve the certainty of the model.
